Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 23.430710 25.494798 27.719987 30.307798 33.248004 36.500593 40.392875
2026-02-01 20.195626 23.042873 26.328907 30.444917 35.524652 41.672723 49.810066
2026-02-08 17.909355 21.165563 25.121926 30.374228 37.308671 46.370905 59.504567
2026-02-15 16.215642 19.695739 24.099426 30.228673 38.793177 50.761939 69.612451
2026-02-22 14.893613 18.495885 23.208595 30.033819 40.049877 54.911706 80.208911
2026-03-01 13.888753 17.580053 22.550937 30.008045 41.449518 59.406425 92.378536
2026-03-08 13.058205 16.804822 21.979701 29.990626 42.791379 63.968723 105.843819
2026-03-15 12.623858 16.526577 22.061481 30.920409 45.714333 71.673769 127.635874
2026-03-22 11.904413 15.777827 21.377377 30.562496 46.417371 75.531397 142.806680
2026-03-29 11.347100 15.218683 20.920474 30.501591 47.596310 80.480900 162.288799
2026-04-05 10.925476 14.826269 20.678281 30.754013 49.352254 86.922689 188.259592
2026-04-12 10.442727 14.307560 20.194259 30.536571 50.181976 91.581025 211.669537
2026-04-19 10.003417 13.840688 19.777346 30.428975 51.283835 97.284768 242.099579
2026-04-26 9.616750 13.433342 19.428934 30.412520 52.582161 103.837793 280.054237
2026-05-03 9.241606 13.021360 19.042210 30.285160 53.632603 110.092917 322.092565
2026-05-10 8.890936 12.627565 18.656932 30.119326 54.573793 116.350835 370.084300
2026-05-17 8.562374 12.250759 18.273817 29.917791 55.403860 122.571157 424.772508
2026-05-24 8.287733 11.946563 17.994428 29.889318 56.627416 130.340959 497.597499
2026-05-31 8.034654 11.664203 17.733742 29.870943 57.873089 138.627324 586.683453
2026-06-07 7.941044 11.641078 17.928371 30.795081 61.594925 156.440007 779.183785
2026-06-14 7.667075 11.299896 17.527924 30.439050 61.997961 162.964664 899.468781
2026-06-21 7.451950 11.048912 17.277092 30.378435 63.176805 172.895920 1084.875182
2026-06-28 7.291666 10.884293 17.175063 30.629404 65.250908 187.329078 1385.548839